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☆ Russia's economic decline is in only in the early stages, and the country is masking significant 'degradation,' think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's economic decline is still in the early stages, according to a London-based think tank. But talk of Russia's economic resilience is misguided, and there are deep-rooted issues that will continue to plague its economy, the think tank said. AdvertisementRussia's robust military spending has been a key factor in propping up its economic growth so far. "Significantly greater isolation and economic degradation is baked into the cake for the Russian economy and people." Russian inflation grew 7.2% year-per-year in January, well above the nation's 4% inflation target.

Persons: —, Mark Sobel, Sobel, Brent, that's Organizations: Service, Official Monetary, Financial, International Monetary Fund, Bloomberg, Yale School of Management . Companies Locations: London, Ukraine, Russia, Oilprice.com, Moscow

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China October 25, 2022. But the extent of the political and economic jitters merely mirrors other signs of a long-term China exit well beyond portfolio flows. Earlier this month, China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in "bricks and mortar" foreign direct investment (FDI). What's more, a multi-year aversion to China investments then risks colliding with deteriorating long-term economic growth dynamics - heightened by rising youth unemployment and dire demographics. Despite some recent upgrades of China growth forecasts, yet another business survey this week raised red flags.

Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo, Nicholas Lardy, Xi, Lardy, What's, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Dolan, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Official Monetary, Financial, Reuters, . Commerce, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, OMFIF, Europe, North America, India, Brazil, Beijing, U.S, Washington, San Francisco

OMFIF outlined a dark mood among the funds, with more than half expecting a global economic recession in the next 12 months. None reported a positive outlook for China's economy, citing the regulatory environment and geopolitics among primary factors dissuading them from investing. "(Investors) are now focused on how to deal with a macroeconomic environment that is stuck in a higher-for-longer interest rate cycle," the report said. Overall, sovereign funds fared better than their public pension peers, OMFIF added. The UAE's Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Saudi Public Investment Corporation grew by 13.8% and 12.9% respectively, gaining over $200 billion between them.

Persons: David Morley, OMFIF, Libby George, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Investors, Official Monetary, Financial, OMFIF, Caisse, outsized, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, Saudi Public Investment Corporation, Thomson Locations: China, India, Middle East, Abu Dhabi

“They’re going to have concerns about our investment policies toward China,” said Mark Sobel, a former longtime Treasury Department official who is now the U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. Tensions have flared over the flight of a Chinese surveillance balloon over the United States, tougher restrictions on technology from Washington, Beijing’s partnership with Moscow during the war in Ukraine and China’s continued threatening of Taiwan. But new investment restrictions from the United States could escalate the tit-for-tat measures that the two countries have been deploying just as they are trying to set a “floor” under their relationship. But the Biden administration appears to have delayed announcing them given the tumultuous relationship with China. Once the restrictions are proposed, the private sector will have time to comment on the limits, which could shape how they are put in place.

Persons: “, ”, Mark Sobel, China’s, Biden, Yellen, Antony J, Blinken, John Kerry, Biden’s Organizations: longtime Treasury Department, Monetary, Financial, Moscow, U.S Locations: China, U.S, United States, Washington, Ukraine, Taiwan, Beijing

☆ China continues to de-dollarize reserves as gold stockpile climbs for 8th straight month
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China's central bank added 23 tons of gold to its reserves in June, marking an eighth consecutive increase. Now, the People's Bank of China holds 2,330 tons of gold in its reserves, according to official data cited by Bloomberg. The gold stockpiling comes amid the country's bid to erode the dollar's global dominance as well as growing economic and geopolitical uneasiness. According to a World Gold Council report from May, 62% of central banks estimate that gold will make up a greater share of reserves in the next five years. At June's end, the central bank held $3.193 trillion.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, People's Bank of China, Bloomberg, Gold, Official Monetary, Financial, Forum, International Monetary Fund Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow

WASHINGTON, April 17 (Reuters) - Just a month after the biggest banking crisis in more than a decade, the world's top economic and financial policymakers gathered in Washington and said surprisingly little about financial system stability - at least publicly. Some officials conveyed a sense that banking system safety was further down the priority list of global economic problems. "But it's still something where we need to stay vigilant and address potential risks which may emerge in our financial system," Dombrovskis told reporters. He added that the European Union's banking system was stable, well capitalized with ample liquidity. But during the IMFC's closed meeting, the possible spillovers from financial stability risks were a main topic, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko told Reuters.

"Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. A furious race to reprice interest rate expectations also buffeted markets as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to hike next week. Traders currently see a 50% chance of no rate hike at that meeting, with rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year. The prospect of higher interest rates had been "the reason investors have been really excited about Japan bank stocks." After marathon weekend talks, HSBC HSBA.L said it was buying the British arm of SVB for one pound ($1.21).

Traders currently see a 50% chance of no rate hike at that meeting, with rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year. Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) tumbled more than 60% as news of fresh financing failed to reassure investors, and so did Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) and PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O). U.S. bank regulators sought to reassure nervous customers on Monday who lined up outside SVB's Santa Clara, California, headquarters, offering coffee and donuts. Regulators also moved swiftly to close New York's Signature Bank SBNY.O, which had come under pressure in recent days. In China, where SVB was the main go-to foreign bank for the majority of start-ups, entrepreneurs and venture funds were also scrambling for alternative funding.

[1/4] A Japanese flag flutters atop the Bank of Japan building under construction in Tokyo, Japan, September 21, 2017. "This is a problem that is not going to change easily," said Momoko Nojo, a prominent campaigner for gender equality in Japan. The BOJ ranked 142nd of 185 central banks on gender equality, according to a report last year by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. About 11% of central banks surveyed had a female governor, a record high, while 37% had female deputy governors. That target is far below the European Central Bank, where women hold 30% of management roles.

☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee eases as Fed sticks to hawkish tone
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Anushka Trivedi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The rupee eased to 82.85 per dollar, against its previous close of 82.78. The currency had consolidated around 82.70 all of this week ahead of the U.S. central bank meeting. The Fed raised its benchmark funds rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4% as widely expected overnight. "This gives some breather to India as the country's central bank may not have to hike as aggressively." The Reserve Bank of India meets later in the day for a special meeting, most likely to discuss its first ever inflation target miss.

☆ Fed's Evans sees interest rates at 4.25-4.5% by year end
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Earlier this month Evans was still advocating for interest rates to peak at 4%. That called for the Fed to be "watchful" and adjust policy "if changes in economic circumstances dictate," Evans said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week warned of "pain" ahead for the economy as the central bank cools demand, with interest rates set to be held at their peak for some time, a sentiment echoed by his colleagues. Investors currently see a 70% probability of another 75-basis-point hike at the Fed's next policy meeting on Nov. 1-2, according to an analysis of Fed funds futures contracts compiled by the CME Group. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Catherine EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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